Session III — VC Perspectives

Investing in Early-Stage Innovation Panel Discussion

Moderated by Joe Jimenez (former Novartis CEO), facilitated by Mark Mercola (Stanford). Four investors on what gets a term sheet when NIH is wobbling, China is climbing, and AI is rewriting every step. Tom Hudson (Versant), Rajeev Dadoo (SR One), Amit Sinha (Goldman Sachs Life Sciences), Vijay Pande (VZ.VC).

NIH Cuts & Academic Pipeline

Well-funded labs haven’t felt the squeeze yet, but young scientists are jumping straight to industry
The National Science Board was dissolved days before the panel
The US edge is cultural, not structural — lose the training pipeline and you lose the edge

The killer question: is the technology cycle inside the product cycle? If v3.0 lands before your Phase 2, your investment inverts
With China owning best-in-class, US/EU urgency on first-in-class grows
Hudson: bet on cells, not pathways — B-cell depletion’s outsized impact in lupus rewired his thinking
Dadoo: design experiments that produce clear go/no-go data — gray data is the enemy

Already doing in-licensing deals on Chinese assets
Stay private longer — public companies must disclose data that becomes a roadmap for fast followers
50 Chinese teams start working on your target the day your patent publishes
Geopolitical chill: some Chinese partners now prefer non-US counterparties

Pande: AI for trials is the biggest win — design, outcome prediction, companion diagnostics; pairs with China in-licensing arbitrage
AI for biology: interesting but can’t patent a target. AI for chemistry: shipping. AI for trials: asymmetric bet
AI-platform pitches with no product line of sight won’t get funded — pharma still pays for molecules, not models
Exception: Anthropic buying Coefficient Bio for $400M hints hyperscalers may start paying for platforms

Unexpected biology + step-function patient benefit
Technology cycle shorter than development cycle
Clear go/no-go experimental design
Franchise mindset — own beyond the first molecule
Moats against fast followers: file patents at IND, stay private, keep rounds quiet